Housing Affordability - January 26, 2008

All the Stars are lining up

1978 - affordability 37% - house value $ 50,000

1982 - house value $ 120,000 ( top of cycle)

1985 - house value $ 90,000 (bottom of cycle)

1994 - affordability over 60% - house value $ 320,000 ( top of cycle )

2000 - house value $ 250,000 ( bottom of cycle)

2004 - affordability 30 % - house value $ 300,000

2007 - affordability 70% - house value $ 550,000

See notes written in 2004 on :

2) Interest Rate Cycle. - Rates are heading lower.

3) Real Estate Cycle. -its been a nice 7 year run. Prices have doubled.

The next move is usually a 25 - 30 % decline - over the next 6 - 7 years.


Are we there yet??? Yes we are.

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Posted February 4, 2004,

The rough guide I use is double the price. If a house was $ 250,000 in 2001 then it would be at least $500,000 at the top.

Sounds crazy but it happened in every Real Estate boom.

I base my forecast on 3 things, which are intertwined.

1) Real Estate Cycle

2) % of Income required to carry a Mortgage

3) Interest rate Cycle

1) Real Estate Cycle

BC is usually around 1 - 2 years behind Toronto in the Real Estate market.

In Toronto the Real Estate cycle started in late 1999, we bottomed out in 2001.

The same would hold for the top of the cycle. Watch Toronto's Real Estate to find out when we may be at the top.

Our current cycle has nothing to do with the 2010 Winter Games. Our cycle started before we got the games.

2) Cost of carrying a Mortgage.

House prices may be higher but at these low interest rates it is cheaper to own a $300,000 house today than a $50,000 house in 1978.

The % of income needed to support the mortgage payments is lower today around 30% compared to 37% in 1978.

At the top of the last boom in 1994 it was almost 60%.

So we have a long way to go.

3) Interest Rate Cycle.

BC again is behind Ontario in terms of a business cycle. The economy in Ontario will be 1 - 2 Years ahead of BC. Going up or coming down.

As the Canadian economy picks up ( meaning Ontario ) and inflation becomes a problem The Bank of Canada will start to raise interest rates.

Increasing interest rates means jobs are easier to come by, people are getting raises, more disposal income and people are spending more.

Initially higher rates will not hurt the housing market since people have better jobs, better job security etc.and are willing to pay a higher rate to get into their own house.

As inflation and the economy heat up The Bank of Canada will keep on raising rates.

There will come a time that those rates hikes start to slow down the economy ( Ontario).

When the % of ones income required to carry a mortgage hurts,and the difference between the mortgage payments and the cost of renting are too wide, is when we will be at the top.

I just had a customer who bought last week and his mortgage payments and condo fees are lower than his rent.

We have yet to see those interest rate hikes. In fact we should see at least another rate cut over the next 2 months.

When interest rates are at the top, that is when BCs Real Estate market seems to be at the top. Happened the last 2 booms 1982 and 1994.